ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN
by James Scully
Saturday's Preakness S. (G1) is a dynamite race. It will bring together a large and competitive field, and there is plenty of sentimental attraction as the saga of SMARTY JONES (Elusive Quality) promises to boom if he adds the second jewel of the Triple Crown and heads to New York undefeated.
Eleven will seek the Woodlawn Vase, and more than half own a legitimate chance to add their name to the infield's weather vane.
Here's a look at the field (in post position order):
LION HEART (Tale of the Cat) will make his third start of the year in the Preakness and trainer Patrick Biancone has suggested a budding rivalry may be brewing between his colt and Smarty Jones similar to Affirmed-Alydar. There's no basis to that yet, but the Preakness could come down to those two runners once again.
Lion Heart is the controlling speed from the rail. Sir Shackleton (Miswaki) may press him from the outside, but jockey Mike Smith will be able to dictate things on the front end. One concern has been the chestnut's tendency to travel wide on turns, but Lion Heart is still lightly raced with room for improvement. He may do everything right on Saturday.
BORREGO (El Prado [Ire]) signaled his readiness with a half-mile bullet workout in :46 last Monday at Churchill. Some may fear that it was too fast, but Tabasco Cat, who finished a dull sixth in the 1994 Kentucky Derby, blistered five furlongs under the Twin Spires four days prior to winning the Preakness.
Borrego, 10th in the Kentucky Derby, offered a decent middle move in the Kentucky Derby before flattening out and should be much closer to the pace this time around with his tactical speed. It remains to be seen whether he's good enough, but Borrego showed fine class when second to Smarty Jones in the Arkansas Derby (G2) and is an appealing darkhorse at nice odds.
LITTLE MATTH MAN (Matty G) is two for two on off tracks. That's the best thing he has going for him because he doesn't appear capable of matching strides with these rivals.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE (Gulch) offered a good move on the far turn at Churchill before flattening out in the stretch. He had a valid excuse, losing both front shoes during the race, and will get another opportunity to run back to his Blue Grass S. (G1) performance. He recorded a 115 BRIS Speed rating for that win, including a whopping 118 Late Pace figure, and the Preakness should set up well for the dark bay colt.
However, The Cliff's Edge returned from a Wednesday jog with a sore foot and his feet were hurting following the Kentucky Derby two weeks earlier. This could affect him on Saturday if trainer Nick Zito doesn't elect to scratch him.
SONG OF THE SWORD (Unbridled's Song) finished 11th in the Kentucky Derby, his third start over a four-week span. Instead of earning a rest, he'll come right back two weeks later. After winning his first three starts, Song of the Sword has tailed off in each of his last three. He might not run well here, but his connections can still try for the Peter Pan S. (G2) on May 22.
SIR SHACKLETON has won his last three starts, including a 1 3/4-length score in the Derby Trial (G3), but has never been around two turns. He also earned a marginal 94 BRIS Speed figure last time. The Nick Zito representative will probably flash speed on the stretch out, but he'll have likely thrown in the towel by crunch time.
SMARTY JONES has been the center of attention at his Philadelphia Park base as crowds of approximately 5,000 have shown up to watch him gallop in the mornings and the unbeaten Pennsylvania-bred has made a believer out of many. The chestnut hasn't led wire to wire in any of his starts this year, but he's always close and is deadly on the far turn with his dazzling acceleration.
Closers were ineffective over the sloppy track in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and things could change this time around with plenty of early speed in the Preakness line-up. However, Smarty Jones doesn't figure to come back to his rivals. The possibility of an off track also favors him because he loves it wet.
IMPERIALISM (Langfurh), one of three members of the field to have won in wet conditions, would relish a sloppy track. The gray is a formidable late runner over any kind of footing and has been underrated since being switched to barn of Kristin Mulhall. Wouldn't be surprised to see Imperialism be a major factor through the stretch on Saturday off his stellar late run for third in the Kentucky Derby.
EDDINGTON (Unbridled) made a splash at Gulfstream with two impressive February wins and thin finished third in both the Gotham S. (G3) and Wood Memorial (G1). He displayed signs of greenness in the former but was much more professional last time, missing by only a half-length in the Wood.
He's got the talent with BRIS Speed ratings of 106 and 105 to his credit and his supporters see a late-blooming colt who is ready to put it all together in the Preakness. We'll find out whether Eddington's ready to step forth against top company or if he remains a race or two away from his best.
ROCK HARD TEN (Kris S.) is an enigma. The massive dark bay created a stir in California with impressive victories in his first two starts and then finished only a head back when making his stakes bow in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Many feel he's the best three-year-old in training.
Rock Hard Ten may live up to those expectations eventually, but he's got to overcome a six-week freshening with limited seasoning. Trainer Jason Orman skipped the perfect prep race in the Derby Trial (G3), and the Belmont S. (G1) may wind up being Rock Hard Ten's proving ground. His BRIS Speed ratings haven't been noteworthy so far (102, 97 and 100 from his three starts), but they figure to improve with more experience. However, his inexperience is a drawback.
WATER CANNON (Waquoit) captured the Federico Tesio and is the only entrant to have won at Pimlico. The Maryland-bred owns good early foot, but his BRIS Speed ratings are low (career best of 96) and he figures to be seriously tested at the distance.
Conclusion
A fast track is so desirable. Few took anything away from Smarty Jones when he captured the Kentucky Derby in sloppy going, but everybody wants to see what he can do over a fast track at this level. Regardless of track condition Saturday, the top two finishers from the Kentucky Derby remain the horses to beat at Pimlico.
I'll reverse the Kentucky Derby exacta. Biancone, a noted turf trainer in Europe before moving to America, selected an unorthodox path in his first Triple Crown experience by giving Lion Heart only two preps at three before the Kentucky Derby. Smarty Jones, who owns only one more career start but was better prepared by John Servis, raced in each month this year while Lion Heart didn't return to competition until March.
By all accounts, Lion Heart has bounced back well from the Kentucky Derby and it's easy to envision him being stronger for the Preakness.
Horses have swept the first two legs of the Triple Crown five times in the last seven years and Smarty Jones is ready to make it six-for-eight if he can get past Lion Heart.
Imperialism and Borrego will be used on the bottom of the exotics. The former looks like the most dangerous late runner with the foot problems surrounding The Cliff's Edge. Borrego figures to be overlooked following his Kentucky Derby showing, but Preakness history is littered with horses whom bounced back with a top performance following a dismal effort there.
Rock Hard Ten and Eddington both figure to improve off their last race and either one could realize his promise in the Preakness, but I'll let them beat me and look for more from them in three weeks
by James Scully
Saturday's Preakness S. (G1) is a dynamite race. It will bring together a large and competitive field, and there is plenty of sentimental attraction as the saga of SMARTY JONES (Elusive Quality) promises to boom if he adds the second jewel of the Triple Crown and heads to New York undefeated.
Eleven will seek the Woodlawn Vase, and more than half own a legitimate chance to add their name to the infield's weather vane.
Here's a look at the field (in post position order):
LION HEART (Tale of the Cat) will make his third start of the year in the Preakness and trainer Patrick Biancone has suggested a budding rivalry may be brewing between his colt and Smarty Jones similar to Affirmed-Alydar. There's no basis to that yet, but the Preakness could come down to those two runners once again.
Lion Heart is the controlling speed from the rail. Sir Shackleton (Miswaki) may press him from the outside, but jockey Mike Smith will be able to dictate things on the front end. One concern has been the chestnut's tendency to travel wide on turns, but Lion Heart is still lightly raced with room for improvement. He may do everything right on Saturday.
BORREGO (El Prado [Ire]) signaled his readiness with a half-mile bullet workout in :46 last Monday at Churchill. Some may fear that it was too fast, but Tabasco Cat, who finished a dull sixth in the 1994 Kentucky Derby, blistered five furlongs under the Twin Spires four days prior to winning the Preakness.
Borrego, 10th in the Kentucky Derby, offered a decent middle move in the Kentucky Derby before flattening out and should be much closer to the pace this time around with his tactical speed. It remains to be seen whether he's good enough, but Borrego showed fine class when second to Smarty Jones in the Arkansas Derby (G2) and is an appealing darkhorse at nice odds.
LITTLE MATTH MAN (Matty G) is two for two on off tracks. That's the best thing he has going for him because he doesn't appear capable of matching strides with these rivals.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE (Gulch) offered a good move on the far turn at Churchill before flattening out in the stretch. He had a valid excuse, losing both front shoes during the race, and will get another opportunity to run back to his Blue Grass S. (G1) performance. He recorded a 115 BRIS Speed rating for that win, including a whopping 118 Late Pace figure, and the Preakness should set up well for the dark bay colt.
However, The Cliff's Edge returned from a Wednesday jog with a sore foot and his feet were hurting following the Kentucky Derby two weeks earlier. This could affect him on Saturday if trainer Nick Zito doesn't elect to scratch him.
SONG OF THE SWORD (Unbridled's Song) finished 11th in the Kentucky Derby, his third start over a four-week span. Instead of earning a rest, he'll come right back two weeks later. After winning his first three starts, Song of the Sword has tailed off in each of his last three. He might not run well here, but his connections can still try for the Peter Pan S. (G2) on May 22.
SIR SHACKLETON has won his last three starts, including a 1 3/4-length score in the Derby Trial (G3), but has never been around two turns. He also earned a marginal 94 BRIS Speed figure last time. The Nick Zito representative will probably flash speed on the stretch out, but he'll have likely thrown in the towel by crunch time.
SMARTY JONES has been the center of attention at his Philadelphia Park base as crowds of approximately 5,000 have shown up to watch him gallop in the mornings and the unbeaten Pennsylvania-bred has made a believer out of many. The chestnut hasn't led wire to wire in any of his starts this year, but he's always close and is deadly on the far turn with his dazzling acceleration.
Closers were ineffective over the sloppy track in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and things could change this time around with plenty of early speed in the Preakness line-up. However, Smarty Jones doesn't figure to come back to his rivals. The possibility of an off track also favors him because he loves it wet.
IMPERIALISM (Langfurh), one of three members of the field to have won in wet conditions, would relish a sloppy track. The gray is a formidable late runner over any kind of footing and has been underrated since being switched to barn of Kristin Mulhall. Wouldn't be surprised to see Imperialism be a major factor through the stretch on Saturday off his stellar late run for third in the Kentucky Derby.
EDDINGTON (Unbridled) made a splash at Gulfstream with two impressive February wins and thin finished third in both the Gotham S. (G3) and Wood Memorial (G1). He displayed signs of greenness in the former but was much more professional last time, missing by only a half-length in the Wood.
He's got the talent with BRIS Speed ratings of 106 and 105 to his credit and his supporters see a late-blooming colt who is ready to put it all together in the Preakness. We'll find out whether Eddington's ready to step forth against top company or if he remains a race or two away from his best.
ROCK HARD TEN (Kris S.) is an enigma. The massive dark bay created a stir in California with impressive victories in his first two starts and then finished only a head back when making his stakes bow in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Many feel he's the best three-year-old in training.
Rock Hard Ten may live up to those expectations eventually, but he's got to overcome a six-week freshening with limited seasoning. Trainer Jason Orman skipped the perfect prep race in the Derby Trial (G3), and the Belmont S. (G1) may wind up being Rock Hard Ten's proving ground. His BRIS Speed ratings haven't been noteworthy so far (102, 97 and 100 from his three starts), but they figure to improve with more experience. However, his inexperience is a drawback.
WATER CANNON (Waquoit) captured the Federico Tesio and is the only entrant to have won at Pimlico. The Maryland-bred owns good early foot, but his BRIS Speed ratings are low (career best of 96) and he figures to be seriously tested at the distance.
Conclusion
A fast track is so desirable. Few took anything away from Smarty Jones when he captured the Kentucky Derby in sloppy going, but everybody wants to see what he can do over a fast track at this level. Regardless of track condition Saturday, the top two finishers from the Kentucky Derby remain the horses to beat at Pimlico.
I'll reverse the Kentucky Derby exacta. Biancone, a noted turf trainer in Europe before moving to America, selected an unorthodox path in his first Triple Crown experience by giving Lion Heart only two preps at three before the Kentucky Derby. Smarty Jones, who owns only one more career start but was better prepared by John Servis, raced in each month this year while Lion Heart didn't return to competition until March.
By all accounts, Lion Heart has bounced back well from the Kentucky Derby and it's easy to envision him being stronger for the Preakness.
Horses have swept the first two legs of the Triple Crown five times in the last seven years and Smarty Jones is ready to make it six-for-eight if he can get past Lion Heart.
Imperialism and Borrego will be used on the bottom of the exotics. The former looks like the most dangerous late runner with the foot problems surrounding The Cliff's Edge. Borrego figures to be overlooked following his Kentucky Derby showing, but Preakness history is littered with horses whom bounced back with a top performance following a dismal effort there.
Rock Hard Ten and Eddington both figure to improve off their last race and either one could realize his promise in the Preakness, but I'll let them beat me and look for more from them in three weeks
